Women's World Cup Best Bets: Argentina

On Wednesday, four more teams will be officially placed into the knockout rounds at the Women’s World Cup as Groups G and F wrap up play. Below we will provide the best Women’s World Cup bets for Argentina-Sweden and Jamaica-Brazil.

In Group F, France and Jamaica surprisingly hold the top spots, level on 4 points apiece. Brazil sits behind it on 3 points thanks to a disappointing 2-1 loss to France on Matchday 2. However, it controls its own fate on Wednesday morning, as it is playing the team it wants to flip. Mathematically, a win or draw will send Pia Sundhage’s team packing, so a victory is the only option for Brazil.

Meanwhile, Sweden has already qualified in Group G, with respective 2-1 and 5-0 victories over South Africa and Italy. Sweden will now look to lock in first place in its final match against last-place Argentina. While Argentina only has 1 point, it has put up a fight at this World Cup and should not be completely overlooked.

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Again, it is clear that Argentina have improved at this edition of the Women’s World Cup. Italy beat it on an 87th minute winner, and it battled back from a 2-0 deficit at the hands of South Africa to earn a draw. With that being said, Argentina is still 0-3-8 at this competition, which is the greatest number of games any team playing in the World Cup has gone without winning a game.

Sadly, it now faces its hardest test in Sweden, a team that is playing like a well-oiled machine. Its 5-0 trouncing of the Italians was a result few would have expected, considering Sweden’s moneyline odds were only set at -120. With only 46% possession, it scored four first half goals and added a final breakthrough in second half stoppage time to deliver Italy’s biggest defeat since Switzerland beat it 6-0 at the Cyprus Cup in 2017.

In turn, Sweden is the favorite here too, with -195 moneyline odds, or an implied win probability of 66.1%. While Sweden should win, those odds are not great, nor is the alternative of betting on its spread. Instead, fading both teams to score has worked out well so far. This play offers -115 odds for this match and has hit in 80% of the 40 completed matches at this World Cup. Moreover, Sweden have only conceded once and is playing the weakest attack in its group.

In addition, play a half-unit sprinkle on Amanda Ilestedt to score at +550. Ilestedt is a defender, which is why her odds are so high. However, she is the joint top scorer at this World Cup thanks to Sweden’s prowess on corner kicks. So far, Sweden has actually scored four of its seven goals from the corner flag, which is remarkable. At +550, this offers plenty of value for a player who has already scored three goals.

Final Argentina-Sweden Prediction: No on Both Teams to Score (-115, DraftKings)

Amanda Ilestedt to Score (+550, DraftKings)

In the next match, Jamaica and Brazil square off in another tricky match to handicap. Jamaica is only the 43rd-best women’s team in the world according to FIFA but is managing to make noise Down Under, which is probably discouraging bettors for this match. However, keep patience with this Brazil team, as it has not been bounced from the group stage since 1995. In reality, it is fairly normal for good teams to feel the pressure early, especially when there are only three games of pool play.

Losing a match to France is nothing to really be ashamed about either. Brazil’s actually won the expected goals battle 1.6 to 1.2 and did not lose the deadlock until the 83rd minute when French captain Wendie Renard scored.

Moreover, Jamaica held France goalless on Matchday 1, which was more of an anomaly than anything else. Looking back at elite teams Jamaica has played in the last couple of years like Australia, Spain, Canada and Mexico, it has lost by at least three goals every time. One could argue that Brazil is harder to stop than any of those teams, with attackers like Debinha, Ary Borges and Geyse.

In turn, go outside of the norm for this World Cup and side with this match having some goals. Instead of playing the total, make a play on Brazil to eclipse 2.5 goals at +115. This is a great chance for it to build some confidence ahead of the knockout rounds.

Final Jamaica-Brazil Prediction: Brazil Over 2.5 Goals (+115, DraftKings)

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